Figure 1. Havana, Cuba. Source: Unsplash.
The recent protests in Cuba mark a turning point in the history of the Caribbean country. On 11 July 2021, crowds of Cubans took it to the streets to demonstrate against food scarcity, medicine shortages, government repression and economic stagnation in their island nation. These are the first protests to threaten the communist government of Cuba since 1994, when the collapse of the Soviet Union caused a severe economic crisis. However, protests back then were much smaller and consisted of several hundred demonstrators in Havana. In the recent protests some demanded “freedom” and the end of a “dictatorship”, asking for political and economic reforms in one of the world’s last communist countries. These anti-government sentiments found support in the United States by Cuban-Americans and politicians, including President Joe Biden.
A dive into Cuban history
Since the 1959 Cuban Revolution, the Communist Party of Cuba is ruling in an one-party system. Before the revolution, Cuban history is full of a struggle for independence. During the colonial years, Cuba was part of the Viceroy of New Spain and the Captaincy General of Cuba under the rule of the Spanish Crown. A series of rebellions during the 19th century failed to end Spanish rule and claimed the lives of hundreds of thousands of Cubans. After the Spanish-American War, Spain withdrew from the island in 1898, and following three-and-a-half years of subsequent US military rule, Cuba gained formal independence in 1902. The republic proclaimed by Cubans soon saw economic success as a result of trade with the United States and private sector growth in the island. However, increasing political corruption, economic inequality and a succession of despotic leaders supported by the US led to the overthrow of the dictator Fulgencio Batista by the 26th of July Movement, led by Fidel Castro, Che Guevara and Raúl Castro, during the 1953–1959 Cuban Revolution.
A communist government with ties to the Soviet Union and strong anti-American sentiment was formed changing the political and economic landscape of Cuba through practices such as nationalization of private businesses. The relations with the United States would further deteriorate after US sponsored an abortive invasion by Cuban exiles at the Bay of Pigs leading Cuba to further strengthen its alliance with the USSR. In 1962, large quantities of advanced Soviet military hardware, including batteries of surface-to-air missiles, flowed to the island. The Cuban Missile Crisis occurred, and Cuba became the theater of a crisis that nearly led to an all-out nuclear war.
Figure 2. Vladimir Lenin, former Soviet politician.
During the Gray Years of Cuba, the economic decline of the country, the harsh living conditions and the government’s repression on human rights led to a wave of emigration primarily to the US. It is estimated that between 1959 and 1993, 1.2 million Cubans emigrated to the US by any means possible including inflatable rafts as the communist government did not allow citizens to travel to the US. Human rights violations (including forced labour concentration camps, torture and executions of political opponents), political corruption, and questionable government policies such as the criminalisation of unemployment were among the causes of the Cuban exodus.
The fall of the Soviet Union meant that Cuba lost its biggest ally and economic partner. Cuba’s economy essentially paralysed because of its narrow basis, focused on a small range of products with limited buyers. Living conditions declined rapidly and a new refugee wave was created. Food rationing was tightened, and it is estimated that the death rate among the elderly increased by 20 per cent, while the average daily intake of calories for Cubans fell dramatically. In more recent years, however, the end of Fidel Castro’s presidency, along with some economic reforms regarding the state’s policy on private enterprises, improved the living standard of Cubans. Tourism contributes greatly to the country’s GDP, while some international trade is available, despite the continuing US trade embargo resulting in a slight recovery of the economy along with reforms providing more job openings for Cubans. Cuba additionally retained before the pandemic, a high level of free public healthcare and education.
Figure 3. Protests in Cuba. Source: Newsweek.
Recent developments
On 11 July, protests erupted near Havana with crowds shouting anti-government chants such as “down with the dictatorship” and “patria y vida” (in English: "homeland and life”) and “libertad” (in English: “freedom”). Looting is common in state-run stores that sell goods priced in US dollars. Most Cubans are unable to afford the items offered in these stores as salaries are extremely low. Cuba’s broken economy is one of the reasons for the people’s discontent. Even inside the Cuban government, it has been acknowledged that the island’s state-run economic model does not work as Fidel Castro admitted in an 2011 interview. After Fidel stepped down in 2008, then-Cuban leader Raúl Castro attempted to reform the moribund command economy. Key sectors were liberalised and for the first time in decades Cuba sought rapprochement with then-US President Barack Obama’s administration.
However, Raúl Castro’s reforms were met with opposition by hard-liners within the Cuban leadership and between 2015 and 2016 the people’s hope for a change disappeared. Economic reforms were stalled and Miguel Díaz-Canel, a long-time party functionary who was picked by Castro as the next leader of Cuba opted for continuity of old policies while Cubans and especially the country’s youth were growing increasingly dissatisfied with government repression on basic freedoms and economic stagnation.
Figure 4. The Cuban authorities have shut down internet connections to stifle protests. Source: Financial News.
The effect of the pandemic
The arrival of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 had a grave effect on Cuba’s existing economic problems. Despite the country’s initial success at handling the pandemic, in recent weeks, coronavirus cases have risen sharply. During the week proceeding the protests, Cuba averaged 6,000 new cases each day. The health system in many regions is, according to activist reports, on the verge of collapse, and longstanding medicine shortages have taken on renewed significance as new and existing patients cannot be treated. On 14 July 2021, the government made its first concession, as travelers arriving in Cuba will now be able to bring in food, medicine, and other essential items through the border without having to pay a customs fee. These foreign visitors have been vital to the durability of Cuba’s economy in recent decades. However, the pandemic forced global tourism to be near-dead for 18 months, causing severe damage to the island’s economy. A spike in staple food prices was triggered and it is estimated that prices could rise between 500 and 900 per cent in the coming months.
Human rights violations are also a major cause of discontent among the people. According to Human Rights Watch, "Cubans are systematically denied basic rights to free expression, association, assembly, privacy, movement, and due process of law." HRW also cites that, “Prisoners Defenders reported that as of August 2020, Cuba was holding 75 people who met the definition of political prisoners, as well as 28 others who the group considered were being held for their political beliefs; another 33 who had been convicted for their political beliefs were under house arrest or on conditional release”. The government’s Decree 349 has been characterised by Amnesty International as a “dystopian prospect” for Cuba’s artists. At the end of 2020, artists and intellectuals of the San Isidro movement gathered outside Cuba’s Ministry of Culture to protest limits on free expression. Luis Manuel Otero Alcántara, one of the leaders of the San Isidro Movement, who Amnesty International has named prisoner of conscience three times since March 2020, is among those detained, reportedly at Villa Marista (state security headquarters). Prior to the protests, Luis Manuel had posted a video indicating his intention to join the protests. Netblocks has confirmed that access to social media and messaging platforms has been restricted in Cuba from Monday on state-run internet provider ETECSA.
Figure 5. The flag of Cuba. Source: Unsplash
As the number of protesters grows, the government denounces protesters as “counter-revolutionaries” and “mercenaries” paid by the United States. President Díaz-Canel said in his television address that “the order to fight has been given—into the street, revolutionaries!” calling for supporters of the government to fight protesters. Videos have since emerged showing the Cuban police firing shots at unarmed protesters. So far, the government has detained at least 100 people and the country’s notorious special forces have been recorded wearing plain clothes and attacking protesters with batons.
It is too early to characterise these protests as a moment similar to 1989 in Eastern Europe. Cuba’s communist rulers are, however, to decide whether a system of liberalisation is mandatory, risking their own displacement, as happened in Soviet Republics and countries of the Eastern Bloc. The other option, which seems more likely, is to deploy the full force of the state against the population, while making small concessions to appeal to the people. The United States policy on Cuba will play a crucial role in the upcoming weeks, as President Joe Biden has fully endorsed the protests, while Russia, China and Iran have warned the United States not to intervene.
As the revolutionary generation is too old to handle politics and only a handful of Revolución veterans are left in the Cuban government, younger Cubans demand change. It is for the future to see if the government continues with the status quo and exhorts ordinary Cubans to make ever greater sacrifices, or decides to give in to the people’s demands.
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